Minnetonka, Minnesota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

404
FXUS63 KMPX 261155
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
655 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light rain this morning across central Minnesota into western
  Wisconsin.

- Temperatures falling throughout the day, with highs only in
  the 30s for Thursday.

- Critical fire weather conditions possible Saturday afternoon
  in southwest Minnesota.

- More active weather expected next week as we move into April.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

There`s a 160kt jet right now screaming along the Canadian border.
We`re on the southern gradient of the jet. This jet is being driven
by the very strong thermal gradient across North America, which saw
highs in the single digits Wednesday in Saskatchewan and Manitoba,
while it was in the 90s again across southern Nebraska and Kansas.
The northern edge of the EML, as evidenced by mid-level lapse rates
near 9 deg C/KM, comes up into central SoDak, extending east into MN
into the Mankato area. The northern edge of this EML is where we`ve
seen an area of rain (and even thunderstorms!) develop across the
Dakotas border into central MN. We continue favor the AIFS for where
the axis of heaviest rain will fall, which includes the likes of the
Canadian and GFS as well with upwards of 0.4" of QPF falling from
roughly Morris to Ladysmith in the northern half of the MPX area.
South of this band, forcing falls off quick going into the EML and
that, along with dry low level air will result in a pretty sharp QPF
gradient from north to south across the Twin Cities this morning.
Fortunately, it`s just rain and not snow...

This band of rain is also falling along a stationary boundary that
is stalled out across central MN early this morning. However, as we
go through the morning, this stationary front will take off to the
south as a cold front. So hopefully you all enjoyed the highs for
the day early this morning as we`ll have falling temepratures
through the day as the colder airmass moves in. That cold airmass
will be over us Friday, when highs will struggle to get out of the
30s.

For the weekend, we`ll get on the backside of the high, with warm
air returning. The problem this weekend is the warmer air starts
arriving on Saturday, but higher dewpoints don`t arrive until
Sunday. NBM tends to be conservative with the mixing for both low
RHs and wind speeds and even so, it has RHs Saturday afternoon in
southwest MN dropping to around 20% with southwest winds up in the
20 to 25 mph range, so it is looking increasingly likely we may need
our first fire weather headlines of the season on Saturday.

Next week continues to look more active as we head into April.
Monday night, we`ll get into the right entrance region of an upper
jet streak and this will start a more active weather period as we
see a western trough/eastern ridge pattern develop. Latest NBM
basically has 30-40 PoPs from Monday night through Thursday, which
captures the current idea well of a more active pattern developing,
but low confidence on when/where that precip would be this far out.
At this point though, the ensembles are showing better moisture to
our east and forcing to our north through the middle of next week,
which may keep us on the drier side of things. It`s the end of next
week into the first weekend of April where things look a little
better for us. And of course by then we`ll have to watch where the
cold air is as well...

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 655 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2026

Rain and a few rumbles of thunder will continue to move
eastward this morning. Sites can anticipate precip to clear out
~16z. Although precip ends, MVFR cigs are expected to linger through
much of today. Continued to stick with RAP forecast guidance which
holds onto lower cigs until early this evening. It is not until
23/01z timeframe that sites begin to return to low-VFR categories
from the northwest to southeast. NE`ly wind gusts between 18-25kts
become NW later this morning as the front pushes through. Winds will
decrease this evening.

KMSP...Rain and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder will continue to
move just north of the field. Did include a 1-hr tempo in the very
near term to capture any rain that manages to reach MSP. Precip
should clear out by 16z this morning followed by MVFR cigs until
early this evening. Still anticipating a bit of crosswind this
morning for the parallels with gusts ranging between 20-25kts.
Around 12z tomorrow, winds back towards the NW and could become
breezy with gusts between 15-20kts.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI PM...VFR. Wind NW 10-15G25 kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind SW 10-15G20 kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind S 5-10G20 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...MPG
AVIATION...Dunleavy